National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Goddard Space Flight Center

The GMAO Research Site

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) supports NASA's Earth Science mission. Activities in Earth System modeling and data assimilation aim to maximize the impact of satellite observations on analyses and predictions of the atmosphere, ocean, land and cryosphere.

Science Snapshots

Science Snapshot Archive »

Recent decline in lower stratospheric ozone attributed to circulation changes

Stratospheric ozone plays a critical role in the Earth system by shielding the biosphere from harmful ultraviolet radiation and by influencing the planet’s radiative budget. Following a period of decline in the second half of the 20th century, ozone concentrations in the upper stratosphere (above approximately 35 km) have been shown to rise in the past two decades. A clear signal of recovery has recently emerged from satellite observations.

Stratospheric Intrusion-Influenced Ozone Air Quality Exceedances Investigated in the NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis

NASA's MERRA-2 Reanalysis is an ideal candidate for the scientific studies of stratospheric intrusions since it is such a high-resolution global dataset and also assimilates both ozone and meteorological observations.

Active Winter Weather Forecasted over North America follow a Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event

In 2018 the zonal winds reversed on 12 February. The GMAO's global Goddard Earth Observing System forward processing (GEOS-FP) system successfully tracked the development of this SSW in it's routine 10-day forecasts. Here, we illustrate the breakdown of the polar vortex and the forecasting of the lower stratospheric and surface weather after the SSW event occurred.

Forecasting the Mt. Agung Ash Cloud Using GEOS

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model combined with data from NASA's Earth observing satellites and best effort estimates of ash and sulfur dioxide emissions from the recent eruption of Mt. Agung on the island of Bali, Indonesia. .