January 2024 ENSO Update (GEOS-S2S-2)
The January ENSO forecast of the GEOS-S2S-2 predict a progressive cooling of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) heading into the Spring months and continuing into the early Autumn months. Earlier December runs were also in agreement that a shift into neutral or Niño 3.4 conditions were likely heading into Summer. Reynolds, plotted in black, shows the observed SSTs in this region and a flattening out of the maxima in SST between November and December, remaining steady in January.
January, February, and March two meter temperature and precipitation forecast anomalies from January’s GEOS-S2S-2 run forecast widespread warming over Canada in January and February that approach neutral conditions in central and southeastern Canada in March. A cooling of the mid-Atlantic and northeast regions is forecasted for February and March, with drier conditions also expected in that region during that time-frame – not ideal for snow lovers!
January, February, and March two meter temperature and precipitation forecast anomalies from January’s GEOS-S2S-2 run forecast cooling over Northern Europe in January and February, that become more widespread in March. A warm bias is prevalent in Africa and surrounding the Mediterranean Sea in both January and February before approaching neutral conditions in March. Most of Europe is forecasted to be wetter than normal for the next two months, except for Scandinavia and northern parts of the United Kingdom.
The 2024 El Niño is an atypical event referred to as an uncoupled El Niño (Hu at el., 2020). These events include the tropical SST anomalies but a weak or absent atmospheric response. Recent uncoupled El Nino events occurred in 2018-2019, 2014-2015 and 2004-2005.
References:
Hu, Z.-Z., McPhaden, M. J., Kumar, A., Yu, J.-Y., & Johnson, N. C. (2020). Uncoupled El Niño warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087621. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087621
