Arctic Sea-Ice Outlook effort at GMAO
The Sea-Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) Sea Ice Outlook is an international effort to provide a community-wide summary of the predictions of the minimum in Arctic sea ice in each September. Monthly reports released throughout the summer synthesize community estimates of the current state and expected minimum of sea ice-at both a pan-arctic and regional scale. Datasets are distributed via the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The Sea Ice Outlook is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The GMAO contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook is derived from the nine-month seasonal forecasts generated with the coupled (atmosphere-ocean-land-ice) version of the GEOS Earth System model. The ensemble of GEOS forecasts is composed of a mix of lagged forecasts (initialized every five days) and simultaneous forecasts (six forecasts initialized on the start date that is closest to the beginning of the month). The simultaneous ensembles are generated from breeding and other simpler perturbation approaches. Initial conditions are determined from GMAO’s reanalyses of the atmosphere, land, ice and ocean.
