The GMAO's MAP06 High-Resolution Hurricane Forecasts

As a member of the MAP'06 project team, the GMAO is conducting GEOS-5 global analyses and 5-day forecasts. The ¼ degree GEOS-5 forecast system is initialized with the analysis from the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System (DAS). The GEOS-5 forecast products will be used to initialize a high resolution WRF regional forecast in collaboration with MSFC. During the NAMMA field campaign, GEOS-5 forecasts will be provided as input to mission planning as well as to examine the impact of direct forcing by dust and black carbonaceous aerosols prior to and during cyclogenesis.

Global Modeling
A unique aspect of the project will be the use of new satellite data sets by GMAO scientists. The GEOS-5 atmospheric model is a weather-and-climate capable model which has been integrated with the NCEP/GMAO Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis scheme to produce a new atmospheric data assimilation system (DAS), the GEOS-5 DAS. The global model forecasts for MAP '06, initialized with the GEOS-5 DAS, will be run at a horizontal resolution of 1/4 degree with 72 vertical levels. The data assimilation system will have a horizontal resolution of 1/2 degree. Five-day global model forecasts will be conducted up to twice per day. A prototype version of GEOS-5 that incorporates the direct effect of aerosols on radiation will be incorporated into the project later in the summer to study the impact of sub-Saharan dust on tropical cyclone development in the eastern Atlantic.

Potential Field Support for NAMMA-06
The project coincides with the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (NAMMA) Extended Observing Period (EOP). As part of MAP '06, GMAO and other ESED scientists will work with NAMMA-06 mission scientists to contribute the global model forecasts for potential field support of research aircraft in the study cyclogenesis off the west coast of Africa during Special Observing Period 3 (SOP3: August 15 - September 15). MAP '06 experiments have the potential to advance our knowledge of the impact of aerosols and land-sea-ocean interactions on tropical cyclogenesis in concert with the NAMMA-06 program.

Some Results
•  From MAP05: Comparison of Hurricane Katrina forecasts with 1 degree, 1/2 degree and 1/4 degree models, initialized with the NCEP analysis.

The GMAO is supporting the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment - Phase B (INTEX-B)

The GMAO is supporting the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment - Phase B (INTEX-B) from the beginning of March through mid-May 2006. INTEX-B is the second phase of the INTEX-NA mission; the first phase (INTEX-A) was completed in the summer of 2004. A complete mission description is available at: http://cloud1.arc.nasa.gov/intex-b/ where documents outlining the scientific basis of the mission and the various deployments are available. The mission aims to understand the transport and transformation of gases and aerosols on transcontinental/intercontinental scales and assess their impact on air quality and climate. The primary constituents of interest are ozone and precursors, aerosols and precursors, and the long-lived greenhouse gases.

Satellites See Ocean Plants Increase, Coasts Greening

Phytoplankton amounts have increased globally by more than 4 percent in the past five years according to a study published recently by Watson Gregg and colleagues
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Data Assimilation Improves Estimates of Global Soil Moisture Conditions

GMAO researchers Rolf Reichle and Randal Koster demonstrate a long assumed (but rarely proven) property of soil moisture fields derived from data assimilation - that the assimilation product is superior to either satellite data or model data alone. + Read More

Project Columbia

Six GMAO proposals have been selected to use NASA's Project Columbia supercomputing resources at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC).
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TCU Summer Interns study the North American Monsoon over the Tohono O'odham Nation

Over June and July 2006, Michael Bosilovich (GMAO) mentored summer interns.
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Atmospheric Data Assimilation at GMAO

Emily Liu presented a poster paper on the Assimilation of Satellite Radiance Data at GMAO during the Fall AGU meeting.
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