2025 Compound Weather Extremes in the Middle East

Summer 2025 stands out as the latest extreme weather episode in the Middle East. The compounding effects of hot and dry conditions triggered crises in water and power supply and fueled widespread wildfires. Here, we define a compound event as a summer season (May–July) with temperatures above the 95th percentile, preceded by rainfall below the 5th percentile during the rainy season (January–May).

The impacts vary spatially and from month to month (Figure 1). However, the Southeastern Anatolian Project (Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi, GAP) region and northern Syria showed strong compound effects throughout all summer months of 2025. The GAP region, where Türkiye has constructed major dams and water irrigation projects, is historically a hotspot of transboundary water conflicts. Compound events have become increasingly severe and frequent over the past decade (Figure 2), with 2021 and 2025 standing out as the only years marked by simultaneous precipitation anomalies below one standard deviation and temperature anomalies above one standard deviation. Devastating wildfires ravaged Syria and Lebanon in 2021 (IDMC 2021). In summer 2025, Syria experienced the worst extreme weather in 60 years, severely impacting the population’s access to food and water (FAO 2025). For the first time, temperatures surpassed 50.5 °C in southeastern Türkiye (Ministry of the Environment, Republic of Türkiye, 2025). These trends are projected to persist in the coming decades (Dezfuli et al. 2021; Dezfuli 2023).

Figure 1: Seasonal (May to July) temperature anomaly of 2025 (shading), relative to 1981-2025 using MERRA-2 T-2m data. White dots show regions where May to July temperature is greater than the 95th percentile and seasonal precipitation (January to May) GPCP monthly product is less than the 5th percentile in 2025.

The consequences in 2025 were not limited to Türkiye and Syria – other countries also suffered significant impacts similar to the 2021 events (Daoudy et al. 2022). Tehran, Iran, a megacity of more than 10 million residents, faced frequent water outages and power blackouts due to depleted reservoirs and extreme heat.

Figure 2: Time series of regionally averaged temperature (T) and precipitation (P) anomalies divided by their standard deviation. Averaged over the GAP region in Türkiye and northern Syria (blue box shown in Figure 1).

The region has struggled to cope with the impacts of these extreme events in both 2021 and 2025. However, some countries have taken steps towards further mitigation and adaptation. For example, Türkiye designed an action plan to combat drought in 2023-2027 and adopted its first Climate Law (Law 7552) in summer 2025 to achieve net-zero emissions.

References: 

1. Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), 2021. Global report on internal displacement. Internal displacement in a changing climate. Available from: https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2021/
2. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), 2025. Drought Alert: Widespread crop failure to impact the food security of millions of people due to failed 2024/2025 winter rains. Available from: https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cd5629en
3. Republic of Türkiye, Ministry of the Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, 2025. Available from: https://csb.gov.tr/tum-zamanlarin-en-yuksek-sicaklik-rekoru-kirildi-bakanlik-faaliyetleri-41746#:~:text=T%C3%9CM%20ZAMANLARIN%20EN%20Y%C3%9CKSEK%20SICAKLIK%20REKORU%20KIRILDI
4. Daoudy, M., Sowers, J. and Weinthal, E., 2022. What is climate security? Framing risks around water, food and migration in the Middle East and North Africa, WIREs Water, 9(3), e1582.
5. Dezfuli, A., Razavi, S., Zaitchik, B.F., 2022. Compound effects of climate change on future transboundary water issues in the Middle East. Earth’s Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002683.
6. Dezfuli, A., 2023. Climate extremes and Middle East protests: Lessons from 2021. Nature Middle East. doi:10.1038/nmiddleeast.2023.33