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S-I Production Description
Atmos/Land Fields
Anomaly Plots
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Atmospheric Fields
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Ocean Fields
Skill Maps
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GMAO
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Other Centers
Reliability Plots
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Atmospheric Fields
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Ocean Fields
Other Resources
NMME Forecasts
CGCM-V1 Experimental Forecast
GMAO Experimental Forecast Suite
Ocean Data Assimilation
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EXPERIMENTAL SEASONAL HINDCASTS
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The GEOS-5 forecasts and hindcasts are initialized by the GEOS ocean and
sea-ice assimilation system, forced by MERRA, and by atmospheric and
land surface initial conditions obtained by running the GEOS-5 AOGCM in
replay mode constrained by MERRA and a correction to MERRA’s
precipitation following the MERRA-Land approach. Seasonal forecast is
initialized every 5 days, except for the date closest to the beginning
of the month when 7 ensemble members are generated. The perturbations
for the six perturbed ensemble members are generated by two-sided
breeding and by perturbations based on atmospheric and oceanic analysis
differences (from the 5-day initial conditions). Skill evaluations are
based on 1982~2009 hindcast data and various observations and reanalysis
(i.e., Hadley SST, GPCP precipitation and MERRA T2m). The anomaly
coefficient (>0.3) is used for the masked anomaly plots.
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