S-I Production Description

Atmos/Land Fields

Atmospheric Fields

Ocean Fields


Other Centers

Atmospheric Fields

Ocean Fields

Other Resources

NMME Forecasts

CGCM-V1 Experimental Forecast

GMAO Experimental Forecast Suite

Ocean Data Assimilation


The GEOS-5 forecasts and hindcasts are initialized by the GEOS ocean and sea-ice assimilation system, forced by MERRA, and by atmospheric and land surface initial conditions obtained by running the GEOS-5 AOGCM in replay mode constrained by MERRA and a correction to MERRA’s precipitation following the MERRA-Land approach. Seasonal forecast is initialized every 5 days, except for the date closest to the beginning of the month when 7 ensemble members are generated. The perturbations for the six perturbed ensemble members are generated by two-sided breeding and by perturbations based on atmospheric and oceanic analysis differences (from the 5-day initial conditions). Skill evaluations are based on 1982~2009 hindcast data and various observations and reanalysis (i.e., Hadley SST, GPCP precipitation and MERRA T2m). The anomaly coefficient (>0.3) is used for the masked anomaly plots.