Abstract:
The summer of 2003 was the warmest on record for many parts of Eurpope. Statistical analysis shows that this kind of anomaly should have never have happened, but alas it did. The NSIPP-1 AGCM forced with observed SSTs shows a tendency of above normal temperature over the European continent, and individual ensemble members show anomalies as strong as those observed for individual months within the summer of 2003. This suggests that the SSTs allowed for a shift in the probability density function which allowed for the atmospheric random component to cause such an anomalous event. Atmospheric model experiments using the NSIPP-1 AGCM varying the land, and ocean boundary conditions, as well as atmospheric initial conditions will help understand the causes of this historical event, and these results will be presented.